Finding Beauty in Roughness: Happy100th Birthday Benoit Mandelbrot

Ever had an experience that goes on to radically alter the course of your life, but the shift wasn’t obvious to you in the moment? For me, one of these moments started with a crumpled note taped to an MIT elevator wall: “Benoit Mandelbrot. Today. 10-250.” The note wasn’t there hours before when I first rode up.

I thought it was a prank, or “hack” as known around campus where such elaborate pranks were a way of life. One of the most brilliant minds in history, doing a pop-up lecture… announced by a handwritten note?

Before I tell you what happened next, you should know why Mandelbrot matters if you don’t already know. He fundamentally changed how we see the universe. Before him, we tried to understand nature through perfect circles and straight lines. But Mandelbrot showed us that nature speaks a different language – one of rough edges and self-similar patterns that repeat at different scales. He called these patterns “fractals,” and suddenly we had a new way to understand everything from coastlines to blood vessels, from stock markets to galaxies.

His insights weren’t just theoretical. Every major discipline has been impacted by his insights in some way. Without Mandelbrot’s work, we wouldn’t have the computer graphics that power modern movies and games. The early pioneers at Lucasfilm used his principles to create the first convincing CGI landscapes. His theories help us model financial markets, predict weather patterns, and understand how our lungs branch and our neurons connect. He showed us that nature’s “imperfections” aren’t flaws – they’re features.

Building 10 at night. Dome sweet dome

Back to that random early eve in Fall 2008, lecture hall 10-250. I showed up a few minutes before. Empty. The time comes. No one. Normal: “MIT time” starts 5 minutes late. But this usually meant most people are in the room on time and settling in with a few stragglers.

Roughly where I sat. How 10-250 looked at the time

It must be a prank. I started looking for the candid camera filming the idiot who fell for the note.

The door opened. In walks a tiny giant.

Diminutive stature. Room-shattering presence.

Behind him, a small entourage of students follow. An assistant sets up a projector, which soon displays a perfectly forgettable image I’ll never be able to forget: a photo of trees on a rocky mountain.

What followed was unlike any lecture I’d attended. Mandelbrot, 84 at the time, had a tack sharp sense of humor. He shared highlights of his journey with an almost punk rock vibe, including stories about white-hatting IBM’s spare compute resources to explore what would become the famous Mandelbrot Set.

Between the mathematics came flashes of biting comedy and profound insight. Incredibly humble, he didn’t talk about how much he’d changed the world. But anyone who looks at his work for more than a few minutes is forced to confront the fact that Benoit Mandelbrot made some of the greatest contributions to humankind in all of history, not just recent history.

I’ve had lifelong tics and fidgets, typical mild spectrum habits. This, coupled with the anxiety of being in over my head at a school where “drinking from the fire hose” is the norm, he noticed me. He paused mid-presentation, looked me in the eye, and said: “Anxiety is a form of masochism in which some of us choose to self-indulge.” I was startled at the time, and wrote it down. Years later I began to wonder whether he was speaking from personal experience – casually sharing a lesson he’d learned – that we in fact choose to direct what otherwise seem like subconscious impulses.

All the while, the projector glowed with the tree-lined mountain. But in the conclusion, to bring home his final point about self-similarity, and the scale within scale nature of the Cosmos, he “zoomed out” to reveal the reality: the initial photo was moss on a rock, sitting on a tree-covered mountain.

Nature’s signature, hiding in plain sight. One of infinite daily examples we by default ignore.

As we celebrate what would have been his 100th birthday, I’m struck by how Mandelbrot’s insights reach far beyond mathematics. He helped me see that we’re at once inhabitants of our corner of the Cosmos and, perhaps, floating around on a subatomic particle in someone else’s scale. That heart-stoppingly beautiful complexity emerges from simple rules. That what looks like chaos often hides deep cosmic patterns.

Watch this

The Mandelbrot Set – the cosmic mathematical object he discovered – might be the closest thing we have to a map of God’s mind. If we are, as Carl Sagan said, “a way for the Cosmos to know itself,” then Mandelbrot scored us one of our most powerful lenses.

Happy 100th, Dr. Mandelbrot. And thank you for helping us see the beauty in roughness, and for showing us that nature’s messiness isn’t a mistake – it’s the very language of the universe. Someday my friend Nathan and I hope to build a Mandelbrot Museum of the Cosmos containing your works, and subsequent discoveries made in the field you found hidden in nature to help others to see, as you’ve helped us to see.

Notes: Key works and references included “The Fractal Geometry of Nature” (1982), “Fractals: Form, Chance and Dimension” (1977), and pioneering CGI work like Loren Carpenter’s “Vol Libre.” Mandelbrot was Sterling Professor at Yale and IBM Fellow Emeritus at the T.J. Watson Research Center. For those interested in exploring further, his papers are archived at Stanford University. Thank you to Nathan Black for inputs and Claude AI bringing the story together.

Flow State for Founders

“When we choose a goal and invest ourselves in it to the limits of concentration, whatever we do will be enjoyable. …Once we have tasted this joy, we will redouble our efforts to taste it again. This is the way the self grows.”
― Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Flow

Ever been working deeply on something and suddenly everything seems effortless? Answers seem to come to you out of the blue, and you know exactly what to do. You’re “in the zone, “making breakthroughs, doing in hours what otherwise might’ve taken days or even weeks?

If so, then you know flow state.

What if you could work like that multiple times a week? The goal of this post is to share a few of the techniques that have worked for me in working toward a personal goal of “frequent sustained creative synthesis flow states I summon at will.”

Why flow matters

People working on startups are called upon to deliver extraordinary results day after day. As individual contributors, as leaders and as managers, every moment counts. It’s crucial that people working startups “become their most formidable selves” as Michael Seibel shared with us on day 1 of Y Combinator. Practicing flow state is one way of doing so that brings compounding advantages over time.

Flow is more than doing in a few hours what might’ve taken a day. Flow is a way of unleashing your full creative potential, which you’ll need to build anything new.

Journey to flow at will

Early in my career flow was a rare anomaly. I would occasionally get these magic sessions and make huge progress in short bursts of time. They felt like a godsend to someone with ADHD. I was grateful for when they happened, but flow states were elusive and seemed entirely random.

Later I developed practices that helped bring about more flow states, including a 10+ year journey of life logging, testing out habits and methods. The journey has involved hacking sleep, freezing, terrifyingly hard early morning kettlebell sessions and many efforts to train and retrain the mind.

But last year something happened that has led to a 5x+ increase in days with work sessions I would characterize as flow state. Last year, during a work break Youtube recommended a 10 minute video from an intriguing young Irish American immigrant named Rian Doris who’s work at Flow Research Collective has helped me reach a new level of productivity.

Flow is the gateway to becoming your most formidable self

Since following Rian & FRC’s work, studying their weekly videos and posts for hours, I’ve documented substantial increase in flow frequency, duration and depth, including accomplishing breakthrough work I do not believe I would’ve been capable of achieving last year. More than that, I’m happier with work, with a greater sense of control over output as well as reward from output. As Csikszentmihalyi put it:

Flow is like a magnet for growth. It pulls us to higher and higher levels of being, to increasingly more complex experiences.”

I’m still not to the personal goal of flow states summoned at will, but much closer than one year ago. The following is a summary of the key concepts that helped me 5x my sustained flow state frequency. While nothing is a substitute for watching Rian’s vids & reading FRC’s posts, hopefully you’ll see that you can get going right away on your own journey to frequent flow. FRC also offers a formal training program I’m excited about trying out later this year.

Keys to Flow

🔑 1. Flow is cyclical, not binary

Before seeing Rian’s vid I thought of flow state like a light switch. All of my efforts to get into flow aimed to turn on that switch. I didn’t understand flow in its proper context: as part of a clear cycle of cognitive states and efforts.

The cyclical nature should be intuitive for anyone who’s studied wave forms, but for years I tried to jump into flow without understanding the before and after. Understanding the flow cycle was a massive leap forward in getting into flow methodically instead of by magic chance.

Understanding flow, flow proneness, flow triggers and flow blockers begins with understanding the flow cycle. The flow cycle has four phases:

  1. Struggle – during this phase you’re researching, learning, developing plans, and getting ready. Struggle is the part most of us occupy most of the time without concerted effort to reach the next phases. Set and clarify goals here.
  2. Release — during this phase you’re going ot pop out of struggle into flow. How? Often the counterintuitive answer is unrelated to the specific goal you’re trying to accomplish, such as exercise. Distract the frontal cortex for awhile then bias toward action.
  3. Flow — this is the phase you’re after, but it requires understanding and working through the other phases in order to make it accessible frequently.
  4. Recovery — once you’ve completed a flow session it’s vital that you recuperate after expensive cognitive demand. This can take minutes to days depending on the effectiveness of your recovery, discussed below.


🔑 2. Clarify what you want, and why

Set ultra clear goals for what you intend to accomplish.

Get the right root of the problem you’re trying to accomplish, write it down, break it down from large goal requiring multiple days or weeks of effort into a concrete list of specific steps you can take. For me, this maps directly to the Struggle phase, as it can be a grind. To decompose a problem requires learning, analysis, reasoning and often revision.

🔑 3. Optimize for flow proneness

Getting into flow and staying in flow requires careful understanding of cognitive load, activation energy, and observing the countless little things that pop up through the day keeping you from your peak cognition.

Optimize your environments

Environment is key to flow. Working in a place that’s inspiring, minimal, and focused on the work at hand maximizes flow odds. But there’s more than visual stimuli.

Optimize recovery: take boring breaks

Effective recovery is at the heart of peak performance. But what makes recovery effective?

Understanding the difference between relaxation and recovery is the first key to getting recovery right.

Scrolling social media or watching tv might be relaxing, but it’s not recovery.

The best recovery breaks are very boring, so that the work itself is more interesting.

Exercise is an extremely effective tool in recovery, especially cardiovascular such as HIIT. I personally love kettlebell challenges – they’re compact in space and time: you can generate a ton of results in 15 minutes with kettlebells.

Contrast therapy has been a game changer for my recovery.

Going on long walks near running water helps too, as long as I don’t accompany it with checking social media, or high cognitive load distractions from work.

Understanding what works for you is a personal journey.

Optimize your schedule

Where we invest our time heavily influences results we achieve.
Optimizing time requires understanding where our time is going.

The goal is to get to a place of effortless exertion on the most important tasks.
Flow can be easily squandered on unproductive tasks, such as social media scrolling.
Flow can be hard to enter and maintain with competing time priorities. Time can slip away.

To minimize time slippage requires productivity system with some way to track time invested.
Clear goals and time tracking lead to faster entry into flow state, reducing struggle and increasing productivity.

  • Find your chronotype – when you’re going to be most likely to enter flow states based on your wiring.
  • Practice work compression – forcing hard limits on the number of hours you’re working vs recovery and family, social & personal time. Give yourself less time than you think you need to complete the task.
  • Explore the Inverted morning routine. As someone who practiced a tightly scripted bootup sequence for years, I was very startled by this concept. Rian points out that some if not all of these routines should be deferred until after the first block flow time. There are many reasons why you should give this a try:
    • theta waves are highest right after waking up
    • answers that might’ve synthesized during sleep are easiest to retrieve before the day is underway
    • there is a powerful “done” anchor out of the gates
    • biohacks flood dopamine – too much too early can overwhelm the system, rather than timing for steady release

Overthinking is the enemy of flow. Once the fundamentals are understood, get out of your way.

Overly complex productivity systems waste cognitive capacity on process for the sake of process. Worse, doing productivity system meta work can wire up dopamine hits that aren’t tied to shipping the results you’re after.

Find a simple system that works for you. I am trying a version of the inverted pyramid with highest leverage next task, and boring breaks with workouts.

🔑 4. Identify and eliminate flow blockers

Flow triggers encourage and induce flow. Flow blockers work in the opposite direction.

The problem is that most modern offices are flow blocker cornucopias.

🔑 5. Widen your “flow channel”

Boredom and anxiety are states of psychic entropy.

You’re most likely to reach and sustain flow when you’re neither bored nor anxious. It’s useful to think of the challenge-skill balance in terms of bandwidth, where you’re capable of flow up to the point of being overwhelmed, and capable of flow down to the point of being bored. The space between is your flow channel, and you can work to widen it over time.

🔑 6. Recruit your subconscious

Your subconscious processes orders of magnitude more info than your conscious mind: 40 bits / second vs 10 million bits a second. How can you activate your subconcious into helping you achieve the specific goals you have in mind? Understanding the basics of your wiring – in particular your task positive network (TPN), default mode network (DMN), reticular activating system (RAS), and how to summon your “silent operator” to unleash your full potential will help you force-multiply your flow states.


“Discarded” exformation versus information

  1. Get clear right root problem
  2. Write problem down as question
  3. Do things unrelated to the problem – allowing subconscious to work
  4. Surface the solutions through writing and action

Further you can actively point your rumination and day dreams at problem solving.

I find it fascinating that this advice maps 1:1 to the goal seeking fundamentals of Psychocybernetics, Matthew 7:7 (ask, seek, knock), the core of the Nightingale’s strangest secret, and the legendary as

🔑 7. Shape friction to your advantage

Friction is your frienemy.

  1. Systemic friction is the constant barrage of other things that don’t directly relate to the subject of your flow. Frequent distractions from communications systems, urges to jump out of flow into other tasks and priorities – these are examples of systemic friction undermining your flow results.
  2. Friction can deter anti-flow behavior – it’s a tool to use to stay in flow – making it harder to distract ones self by leaving phone in another environment while working is an example
  3. Friction is a catalyst – the Release stage hinges on understanding that there are concrete steps to take to immerse into flow. The amount of pre-work and activation energy you have to complete before you’re in the flow is a major determinant to whether you’ll enter flow.

🔑 8. Flow on the go: embrace chaos & micro-missions

What if you’re not in your flow dojo, or your 3 year old insists on rebuilding your flow dojo including rearranging your standing desk while you’re working to stay in flow? Life happens. Founders must think and act in chaotic conditions. The “micro-mission” technique perfected by Navy Seals is the perfect way to operate at peak performance toward clear objectives even in chaotic situations. The keys to micro-missions are certainty windows, complete concentration, and clear goals.

Even wilder, you need chaos in moderation in order to maintain a productive flow cycle as you make progress. Understanding how VUCA (volatitlity, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) impacts your cognition in positive and negative ways is key to your journey to flow.

🔑 9. Dispersion: destroyer of dreams

Easy come, easy go. Once you’ve unlocked all-new levels of productivity, you’ll be generating substantially higher output. Now you must fiercely guard your time and attention. The temptation could come to take on additional projects that aren’t core to your startup, or to acquire possessions that distract you subconciously. Be mindful of the end goal and choose where you invest time and financial resources wisely.

Wrapping up: Find what works for you

We’re all wired uniquely, with different chronotypes, different stimuli responses, different levels and kinds of experience, different goals. I think of flow as practice and am working to figure out what works for me. I hope this post saves you some time in your own journey to unleashing your full potential.

Learn more

This post is a lightweight primer that only scratches the surface of what’s currently known about flow. If you’re interested in exploring more:

  1. Check out Flow Research Collective’s work and definitely follow Rian’s youtube channel
  2. There probably isn’t a substitute for reading Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s Flow, it’s a short powerful read with timeless lessons he developed while researching at U of Chicago and is the Origin of Species of flow science.
  3. And Psycho-cybernetics is a must read for underlying principles of self-organization and goal seeking. Cybernetic coherence = systemic flow state.
  4. I left out the neuroscience & biochemistry Flow Research Collective incorporates into their work. There is an abundance of literature on the brain and concentration, the sub-networks such as the task-positive network and the default-mode network. Fascinating stuff to check out if you want to go deeper.

Thank you

Thank you Rian & and the Flow Research Collective team for all you’re doing to unleash humankind’s full potential, and @sockcymbal for edit reads.

Cold Therapy Transforms Lives

Confession time! I’m addicted to ice.

Or, as Plunge would say, “Cold is My Medicine.”

Every morning, and many afternoons, I jump in to 41 degree water for a minute.

Crazy? Probably. But the more I do it, the more I think it’s crazy not to do it.

Journey to Cold AF

My buddy Nathan had been telling me about Wim Hof’s research for at least five years, but it wasn’t until seeing this batshit insane video last year that I decided to give it a try:

This vid forced me to drop excuses about not trying cold therapy, since:

  1. If they do this in the coldest place on earth, I cannot complain lol
  2. Nikolai’s reasons why he’s jumped into ice water every morning for 50 years are extremely intriguing

After trying it a few times last winter, I was hooked, and looked more into the underlying mechanics. Andrew Huberman’s summary hits most of the major benefits, but for me personally the biggest benefit by far is the astounding mental clarity. For hours after each session, I feel in full control of my mind. I think of the effect as what it must be like to not have massive ADHD.

How to chill?

How do you get cold if you don’t live in Yakutsk?

  • You can build a great cold setup for a couple hundred bucks if you have a day and basic mechanical skills. Google DIY cold plunge and you’ll see hundreds of plans, even reddit threads.
  • You can order converted freezers for a couple thousand.
  • Cold showers can work in certain climates, but strange as it sounds, I would rather take the hit of immersing in cold water than do a really cold shower – those hurt worse in parts of the world with a cold water table! Cold showers are seasonal, hit and miss by geography and specific plumbing setup, and truly cold showers are somehow more painful than immersion.
  • You can do cryo at a local spa/flotation place. I haven’t tried cryo but hear great things.
  • There is a fast-growing market of professional at-home cold plunge setups. This is the route I wound up taking once I understood the massive benefits firsthand.
Plunge is quiet and compact, and easy on the eyes

I personally took the plunge on a Plunge after doing ~10 hours of research on different units. I think it’s possibly the best health investment I’ve ever made, since it does so much to make the daily plunge habit easy, accessible, and enjoyable:

  • While pricey, it’s a fraction of the cost of comparable high end units, AND seems to deliver the best overall value when stacked against them.
  • In Plunge, the water circulates. It’s hard to describe the difference this feature makes until you’ve experienced it yourself. Guys who are accustomed to 34 degree water for X minutes will only be able to do a fraction of X at 41 until they adapt to the extra heat sinking power of the circulating water.
  • It’s very low maintenance, with a very clear easy maintenance protocol.
  • The system includes UV and a filter to keep the water super clear.
  • It looks pretty cool, like something you’d see in a high end spa.
  • It’s not super bulky, like some of the high end units. Some of those could take up a huge chunk of back yard / patio for no discernable reason.
  • One note on Plunge: you might want to go for the XL if you want to fully submerge. I’m only 5’8″, but had trouble doing full submerge in the regular model. Full submerge is a powerful multiplier of effects once you’ve worked up to that level. Ideally you’re 100% under for as long as you can stand it, with the regular unit it can be a challenge to fold up enough to get it done, and you’ll end up displacing a ton of water in the process.

Frosty tips

Even if you’re like me and despise cold showers, go try immersion for yourself. It hits different. If you live in the bay area, DM me to come try the Plunge here, or find a local spa that offers cold immersion. Or fill your bath tub with ice water and get in there. It will probably take a couple of tries to “get it.” Stick with it.

What about while traveling? In addition to the sleep hacks for founders hotel hacks, I now make sure the room has a tub, and just about every hotel has an ice machine, so maintaining the routine while on the road is very easy.

Breathing technique is important, but I find that good breathing is mostly reflexive – you’re either going to start hyperventilating and bounce out of the cold, or be forced to get your shit under control – fast. The calmed, measured breathing sticks around for hours afterward.

Cold therapy pairs great with heat therapy. I also got a cheap-y backyard infrared sauna and love doing both. But if you have to pick one, my strong suggestion is cold, even if sauna is way more comfortable.

Who could cold therapy help?

Any human – there are numerous studies about the boosts to immune system, well-being to think that there’s something for everyone in cold therapy.

Founders in fast-moving, high stakes environments. I think daily cold therapy is possibly the most important tool to achieving sustained creative synthesis outside of deep sleep. The massive focusing power, calming meditative state and mental toughness from cold therapy are reasons enough that founders should give it a try.

Elderly and people with chronic pain. The cold pulls inflammation from the body, and with it the pain of aching joints, muscles, etc. In its place you get huge, natural dopamine boosts that last for hours. This could really help folks with arthritis. It would be really cool to see more cold therapy in nursing homes and multi-generational projects.

Addiction-prone folks looking for a better bath. You get most of the “high” of opiates without the perilous side effects or slippery slope. How many people on the cusp of slipping into a life of addiction would benefit from this insanely powerful source of wellness? Could we see cold therapy in places like Tenderloin district – offering folks a way up and out of their situation?

I hope you try it for yourself and have a great experience!

Sleep Hacks For Founders

Four years ago today, a startling conversation with an investor started my journey to “get good at sleep.” Years of trial & error, research, and life logging led to the ideas summarized in this post.

Implementing the habits and ideas outlined in this post have exponentially boosted my productivity and sense of well-being in life. Sharing them here in case helpful for other founders who can and must get better sleep. A summary of the conversation that sparked the journey is included at the end.

Why should founders invest in sleep?

Invest the money and time into your sleep practice. It’s worth it. You’re worth it.
It’s a compounding investment. You’ll accumulate new skills and unlock new worlds of possibility.
You will become increasingly capable of doing your job – which gets harder at each new rung of success you unlock during the startup years.

I failed to understand this until shortly after that startling conversation, and didn’t take pursuing better sleep seriously enough until around a full year after that conversation. The cost of my poor sleep extended beyond the discomfort of sleep deprivation, the irritable temperament, the avoidable mood swings and bouts of depression. The cost was cumulative, in the failure to recover from the extraordinary daily stresses of building a company, and in my inability to synthesize creative solutions to increasingly difficult problems quickly enough.

Poor sleep cost me dearly.

A bit of context:

  • This is my 10th year as a “life logger” – I started tracking inputs, journaling, quality of life, daily inputting various quant & qual metrics starting January 2013. I added several sleep-specific metrics after the 25 Feb 2019 conversation.
  • I’d been awful at sleep most of my adult life. I would lie awake and just think for hours on end. It used to take me an hour or more to fall asleep, I’d sleep in fits and starts, and would often skip sleep altogether. Now I generally get very high quality, sustained sleep most nights and fall asleep on average 11 minutes after hitting the bed.

Why sleep hacks specifically for founders?

Generally good sleep advice that might work well for most people can fall short for founders for several reasons:

  1. Founders generally have higher work load and responsibility beyond the average person. A professional athlete has a different nutrition regiment than the average person, so it’s not crazy to think that founders can have different sleep requirements.
  2. Optimizing sleep for overall comfort and consistency is important for most people, but optimizing sleep for creative synthesis is even more important for founders.

Optimizing sleep for creative synthesis is the target goal for ideas described in this post. Many of these ideas don’t match up with main stream sleep advice. Some of these ideas might even be exceptionally bad for most people. But all of these ideas have helped me personally get really good at sleep.

I’m not a doctor or a sleep scientist, please DYOR and find what works for you.

Founders can optimize sleep for creative synthesis.

Even after decades of research, sleep is still borderline magic. We know that it’s vital for many important processes of body and mind.

For founders who need to be prolific problem solvers, the creative synthesis gained in certain forms of sleep is essential to success.

Recently, cognitive scientists have begun to unravel of some of sleep’s mysteries. There are stacks of great sleep research papers, but “How Memory Replay in Sleep Boosts Creative Problem-Solving” by Lewis, Knoblich & Poe was the eye-opener ???? for me:

Memory replay mechanisms in non-REM can abstract rules from corpuses of learned information, while replay in REM may promote novel associations. We propose that the iterative interleaving of REM and non-REM across a night boosts the formation of complex knowledge frameworks, and allows these frameworks to be restructured, thus facilitating creative thought.

Creative problem-solving is critical for all spheres of innovation and pioneering thought. As such, it forms the foundation of a technology-based economy

Such processing can provide mental clarity and facilitate creative problem-solving by promoting the comprehension of an overall structure or the extraction of hidden regularities or ‘gist’. …

Paradoxically, creative problem-solving often also requires the discovery of unexpected solutions through seeing beyond such rules and building new associations, which lead to novel solutions via analogical reasoning. Such creative leaps can be actively blocked by preconceptions or prejudices, which prevent us from seeing otherwise obvious solutions.

Importantly, these insightful rule-breaking associations are also facilitated by sleep.

from “How Memory Replay in Sleep Boosts Creative Problem-Solving” (NIH)

In other words… mixing sleep phases facilitates creative problem solving. Their paper goes on to document the specific mix of sleep phases where different types of cognitive processing seem to occur.

The result suggests something much more elaborate than the classic “8 hours a night” advice received.

When pairing high quality phase-mixed sleep with techniques that guide the sleeping mind’s activities toward target outcomes, founders can hack sleep to help solve extremely complex problems by way of creative synthesis.

I’ve been practicing this approach to sleep for a few years now, generating results that, frankly, I never would’ve achieved “on my own.”

The rest of this post talks about things that I’ve found that work for me in order to maximize those results, which seem to compound in value.

Please find what works for you, but some of the ideas herein might be worth a try.

Invest in your hibernation lair: build your sleep stack

Invest in your hibernation lair.

  • Eight Sleep Pod pro
    • Eight Sleep changes the game by removing heat during sleep. If you tend to “run hot” like me, Eight Sleep is a must-have in your sleep stack.
    • However mind that the technology layer consists of plastic, which is inelastic – movements are more readily telegraphed if you share your bed with a partner, you’ll feel their movements more, and stomach sleeping is impossible.
  • This Pro sleep mask from Manta
    • I’ve used Manta Manta masks since the very early versions. Early Manta masks were superior to any other sleep mask on the market at the time. But the Manta Pro completely destroys the earlier versions of Manta masks. This mask is brilliant in comfort, effectiveness, convenience. It weighs nothing, gets the job done, feels like air, and is exceptionally well-designed.
  • Noise cancelling headphones
    • I use Bose QC45, but don’t know if they’re the best for sleep. They’re comfortable and fit nicely with the Manta sleep mask. Just be sure to disable voiceover and make sure they’re charged before heading to sleep, to avoid distraction in the night.
    • To avoid any accidental connection to other devices or dead batteries, I have pair of headphones exclusively for sleep. They charge when I wake up and are by the bed ready to go at night.
  • Apple Watch / equivalent sleep trackers
    • Keep on Sleep mode, avoid vibration / beeps
    • Use to track heart rate, log this – you’ll spot correlations that lead to surprises. For instance, my Low Heart Rate will be at least 15% higher if I have more than 1 beer in the day.
  • Air purifier with white noise
    • Particulate matter can destroy sleep. Dust, pollen, pet hair – anything that can enter your airway can keep you from achieving optimal sleep, or wake you up. A high capacity air purifier improves air quality in your hibernation lair, and adds white noise to your acoustic environment.
  • The right temperature and humidity
    • For me the right sleep temp is 69 degrees ambient.
    • It took moving from plush Karl the Fog perfectly humid SF air to a semi-arid climate to realize that humidity – or lack thereof – profoundly impacts sleep. I ended up needing to install a home humidifier, and still sleep with a Levoit (set to warm, 65%) next to the bed.
  • Blackout curtains
    • Even though the Manta is immensely effective, you’ll still want to minimize light leakage and amount of light received during bathroom breaks, while falling asleep, etc.
  • Phone on DND
    • The latest phones allow highly customizable do not disturb modes in which certain contacts can pass through your blocks in case of emergency. Otherwise block every potential disturbance.

What about travel?

Travel is unavoidable for founders. How do you maximize odds of great sleep when not at home? Invest in a mobile hibernation lair kit, adjust your habits for local time zones, and do your homework on places to stay:

  1. Get a second sleep mask, headphone set, and a travel humidifier for visiting arid climates.
  2. Research hotel reviews – fellow sleep enthusiasts will rate bed quality and noise. When in doubt, call ahead.
  3. I ask to be placed on a high floor away from the elevator. This helps minimize incidental traffic noise. Use towels along the bottom of the door to help further reduce hallway noise.
  4. Make sure your room includes a fan you can keep “on” even during the night. If this doesn’t work, use the white noise video linked below under “Dream Machine” on your laptop to create ambient noise. Just make sure all other notifications, bells & whistles are completely silenced.

Habits & Inputs

  1. Build a daily script.
    • Great sleep stems from great waking habits. The over-active founder’s mind is a powerful tool if wielded correctly, but can be difficult to turn off.
    • Build the habit of a daily script – a note file you copy and paste then fill out to contain the things you need to do each day, the things you need to get done on a specific day, and any other pieces of self-guidance you want to include. Make sure to check every last thing off each day, or move forward those undone things that still need to get done, with a clear outline of what you need to do the following day.
      • This habit will help to fully ground out the chatter that will otherwise keep your mind engaged when you should be falling asleep.
  2. Guide your desired synthesis.
    • Before falling asleep, think about the specific problem or general area where you want to create results the following morning. It’s the #1 thing you put on your daily script for tomorrow.
  3. Cold therapy. A couple of minutes per day in 50 degree or below water profoundly changes the mind and body. I’ve found it to be a miracle for sleep.
  4. Hot bath before bed. Spiking overall body temperature before sleep triggers the lowering of core temperature. The brain needs to shed a few degrees to bring on great sleep.
  5. Intense BUT SAFE workouts.
    • Weights – there is nothing sweeter than the deep, narcotic sleep the night after an intense weight session. Mixing barbell, kettlebell, and dumbbell activities, and mixing low rep heavy, time under tension, and high rep cardio movements seems to work best.
    • Walking works wonders for sleep. When you absolutely must sleep deep tonight, try getting at least 15,000 steps on flat land or 5-10k hilly steps during the day. Beast mode: get a weighted vest. You look goofy as hell but it’s highly unlikely you’ll be awake more than a few minutes after hitting the bed after this workout.
    • Running is great, too, but I find it less effective than long walks and weights for some reason, especially after Covid vaccines reduced my V02 Max by 5 points.
    • I’ve not found the magic time to work out, but generally like doing very early workouts some of the week, and later afternoon workouts other parts of week.
    • One caveat: be safe when working out, because physical injuries keep the mind activated during sleep. It’s hard to know until you try to sleep after sustaining the injury, but there is something mentally active about garden variety injuries – a torn rotator cuff can cost you many sleepless nights for weeks on end. The cruel paradox is that you need to be sleeping for optimal healing.
      • If you do get an injury, try a bio-wave electrolysis machine rather than pain pills (see “sleep threats” below)
  6. Plenty of sunlight during day
    • I’m not sure if it’s vitamin D or photo receptor modulation or some other mechanic, but my sleep is always better if I get a good dose of sun during day
    • However, sunburn is bodily injury, which can have the opposite effect by taxing the sleep and distracting with another stimulant (pain)
    • BUT – make sure that no sunscreen (or other agitating topical) can seep into the eye at night, because the irritant will severely alter REM and prevent deeper sleep…
  7. ASMR while falling asleep – but you don’t need weird videos or soothing sounds to trigger ASMR. You can trigger ASMR yourself. I find concentrating on all-encompassing gratitude – for all that I have, all that I seek, all that I am, all that I will become – is the easiest way to trigger a deep, sustained “dose” of ASMR.
  8. Bias toward over-hydration
    • Better to wake up a few X for bathroom breaks than to not have enough water in system for all the processes that need to take place during sleep.
    • A SMALL amount of mag or cal-mag before bed – I found a tbsp in a quart of water to work wonders. 2-3 bathroom breaks a night, I’ll drink a bit of the magnesium-infused water
  9. Pillow Fort!!!!!
    • I ignored the importance of pillows and body support until very recently. It took many years of experimenting to figure out a very strange pillow configuration:
      • I have to sleep with two full pillows under my knees. Doing this removes lumbar pressure so I can relax.
      • I also found out that I prefer no pillow under my head!
      • But I also prefer one pillow over each shoulder, angled away from my head like front-mounted wings. No idea why, but this weird configuration does the trick most nights.
      • However! If I’m getting sick with something respiratory or nasal, it’s extremely important to elevate the head or I’ll cough the entire night.
  10. Avoid sleep threats like “time release sugars” and inputs that destroy creative synthesis
    • While a melatonin supplement does seem to help with sleep onset, it also seems to “scramble” the sleep itself, and in the end I find that it undermines the invaluable creative synthesis that would’ve occurred falling asleep naturally.
    • The “magic” in Magic Spoon cereal is allulose, a poorly-researched sugar substitute that looks good on paper as a ketogenic miracle, but seems to seriously disrupt sleep from my personal trials. It seems to function like “time release sugar” with delayed onset energy. Every night after consuming anything with allulose, without fail I would wake up with the same deteriorated sleep quality and “buzzing” brain effect.
    • While alcohol doesn’t metabolize into sugar as is commonly believed, the net effect is comparable: sleep while metabolizing booze is shallow, easily disturbed, and poor for synthesis.
    • Many people swear they’re “immune to caffeine,” and I was once of them, or so I thought. I was surprised by personal A/B tests of sleeping heart rates (LHR, RHR), differences in sleep graph, and brain wave reads with caffeine cessation before 10am versus drinking caffeine later in the day. I try to have caffeine no later than 9am Sun-Wed, but relax this Thu-Sat.
    • Foods that spike brain activity – excessive salt, for example, and foods that cause allergic inflammation. Foods very high in fat can keep the brain buzzing.
    • The stomach is a second brain with its own neurons and linkages. It can make or break your sleep session. Heart burn can cost you the good stuff. A weird trick I learned from my dear Grandma V – who partied like an animal and slept like a rock – a teaspoon of baking soda before bed!!
    • Certain spices and food additives will keep me awake for hours. I still don’t know which specific foods do this, but certain curry mixes and most processed foods consistently reduce sleep quality and overall synthesis.
  11. Forgiveness & patience
    • Even with investment of time, money, and practice, the sleep won’t always come the way you hope.
    • Be patient and forgiving of yourself. You’ll get there the next night, and learn from tonight. A sleepless night is not the end of the world.

Advanced sleep hacks – proceed with caution

If it only came down to a few standard tools, habits and guidelines, most founders would deep sleep most nights. But there is an ocean of mystery between what works good enough most of the time and what works exceptionally well. Here are some controversial tools I’ve found to be extremely effective at maximizing my sleep for creative synthesis.

My “Dream Machine” – A dedicated sleep iPad with a Youtube sleep playlist

With over-active brains, one paradox is that founders often need “escape stimuli” to relax. To let the mind wander.

Most sleep advice lists recommend an hour of fiction before bed, but if you’re like me, this can backfire pretty fast. For instance, you start out from the Shire and the next thing you know you’re deep in Moria and you need to wake up in two hours…

I’ve tried other forms of escape stimuli – audiobooks, music, guided meditations – they all have limited “stopping power” in the face of an extremely charged up mind.

One of the strangest, most powerful sleep hacks I’ve discovered flies in the face of popular sleep advice, which dictates “NO DEVICES!” It took a lot of trial and error and config to make it bulletproof, but the result has multiplied my ability to optimize sleep for synthesis. No matter how stressful the day, no matter how active my mind, this technique has become an absolute multiplier of sleep quality for me.

I love falling asleep to simple but engaging videos like SEA, Why Files, After Skool, etc. These 20-30min vids are far more effective at bringing sleep for me than fiction on a kindle, and I’m not equipped with the super power of just being able to nod off to sleep without some form of content input. I also utilize guided meditations that, in an ideal world, auto-play after I’m already asleep, and really high quality white noise to promote relaxed sleep.

I ended up building a “Dream Machine” – an iPad that only plays select videos in a very specific way. The net effect is something like the warm, flickering screen of an old black &white tv like my grandpa would fall asleep to in the recliner.

There are so many things that can go wrong: autoplay, loud noises, ads, bright screens, auto-update shut off, alerts…

However, if you’re willing to invest a few hours, you can create your own dream machine setup. You need a dedicated ipad, a premium (ad-free) youtube account, and a willingness to experiment with what works for you. Here’s how:

  1. Optimize the device to be a sleep aid.
    • Disable auto-updates.
    • Remove other apps and titles – I do keep a note file in case I have “must write down” ideas while falling asleep.
    • Set the screen filter to warm shift to remove blue light.
    • Set the color filter to grayscale only to remove color stimuli.
    • Set it to the lowest possible brightness. You won’t be able to see it with the lights on, and you won’t get excited by the light when dark.
    • Have only one bluetooth connection – pair with your noise cancelling headphones.
    • Set the max volume to be comfortable and not distracting, it should never be loud.
    • Use this device only for sleep aid – nothing else.
  2. Build your zzzzzzzzzz list
    • The list material varies but is generally three “phases” – vids to fall asleep to, followed by a guided meditation, followed by white noise.
    • My personal faves include SEA (space!), Why Files (conspiracies!), After Skool (alternative viewpoints!), – but you’ll ultimately need to find what works for you. Intriguing, but not gripping.
    • Plug in your fave guided meditation after around an hour or so of fall asleep material. This way it starts to play after you’ve already dozed off.
    • Follow that by white noise. Here’s some really, really good white noise.
    • Each night drag the list order for the three phases. Click through to test – sometimes Youtube mixes up order and you have to reset the last played marker each night by scrubbing an unfinished video to the end.
    • Setup takes about a minute per night, but the result can become an extremely powerful sleep aid.

Optimize your weekly routine for creative flow state blocks

Another core tenet of popular sleep advice is to fall asleep each night at the same time and wake up each morning at the same time.

While that advice makes sense for most people, I find that it’s not necessarily ideal for founders optimizing for creative synthesis, for two reasons:

  1. It’s unrealistic for founders, especially founders with kids. Between travel, the increasingly global nature of remote teams, and the happenstance of a schedule that’s busier than the typical person.
  2. For better or worse, we’ve organized modern work according to 7 day weeks, and those weeks established a certain rhythm. To make the most of creative synthesis requires a mix of peak creative output and deep recovery. That rhythm is at odds with a “same time every day / night” rhythm. Here’s a rough outline of my typical fall asleep / wake up times to illustrate:
    • Monday: sleep by 7p, wake by 2:30a Tues. First meeting 9a.
    • Tuesday AM is my big creative flow state block. I get up very early well ahead of the commotion of the day to deeply focus. I’ll do this again on Wednesday as needed.
    • As the week progresses, I back off of the very early rise and “play it by ear” – one of the mornings will be a recovery morning, and if there are social events of an evening, I work those in without worry that I’ll lose sleep.
    • Saturday is flexible, up early to clear mind from week, stay up late to watch movies with family etc.
    • Sunday is a reset day, I do three intense workouts to make sure I’ll fall asleep at night: sleep by 7:30p, wake by 3:30a Mon. First meeting 8:30a.

It’s a general outline: I am not religious about any start or stop time. Going with the flow and adapting to change yield better value than stressing over rigidity.

Backstory – the startling conversation that prompted my exploration of sleep

Four years after the startling conversation, I now think of sleep as a practice, like yoga, or a professional skill. Four years in to building up my sleep understanding, rituals and habits, I still have no idea what exactly happens during sleep – only that it’s possible to get better at it, and that getting better at sleep yields compounding value for founders.

I mistakenly thought that “powering through” sleep-deprived days was part of “the grind.” Here is the story of when I became aware that I was very wrong.

On this day four years ago, I received a startling piece of advice from Ashton Kutcher during a strategy session with the thoughtful Sound Ventures team at their Beverly Hills office.

“How are you doing?” he asked me suddenly in the middle of my opening update.

“Great, other than lack of sleep,” I said, then continued with the update. Which was true, but not noteworthy in my mind, as I’d been pretty bad at sleeping for as long as I could remember.

While not a total insomniac, since high school I’d slept very little most nights, and in erratic form, some days missing sleep entirely, at times on purpose. In my twenties I’d pull routine all-nighters, sometimes back-to-back. In college these were a kind of badge of honor, misconstrued as a sign of toughness and dedication rather than what they really were: a reflection of poor time management.

I only mentioned “lack of sleep” when he asked, because in the months leading up to that meeting, I’d gotten so busy with work that my historically poor sleep had combined with fewer hours in which to sleep, and it was beginning to take a toll, which he seemed to sense.

I began to move to the next points in the update, but he cut back in: ”You need to get good at sleep.”

Something about this startled me. Many things, in fact: that he cared enough for the well being of one of the founders he backed while being busy with family and multiple careers. That sleep was something I could get “better at” – what the hell did he mean by that? Isn’t sleep something that happens… or doesn’t? That it was an important enough topic to pause a strategy session. Above all – that I really hadn’t thought much about sleep up to that point. If anything, I viewed sleep as nice-to-have, and something that was at odds with the demands of being a founder.

He clearly thought it important, because months later, at our next checkin, his first question was “how’s your sleep?”

It was improving, but I still had a long, long way to go.

Fast forward to today – in hindsight, I think he’d sensed my fundamental misunderstanding of sleep, included my under-estimation of its importance, and wanted to make the point in a way I’d absorb the advice.

I did absorb that advice, and am beyond words grateful that he shared it in a way that I’d “get it.”

Footnotes / further reading

These articles were somewhat helpful in shaping the thoughts summarized above, but far less so than experimenting with what works, using a life log to incrementally improve.

How Memory Replay in Sleep Boosts Creative Problem-Solving – PMC

ADHD is bi-directionally linked to entrepreneurship. Not all founders have ADHD, but for those that do, sleep can be extremely challenging as business takes off.

Trouble sleeping and ADHD go hand in hand. Theories about why this is so range from melatonin production quirks to circadian arrhythmia, but my guess is it stems from our heightened response to stimuli. Noises, changes in temperature, and light might impact sleep in someone with ADHD more so than someone otherwise. The same lower stimulant barrier for inputs processed during waking life remain so during sleep.

48 Sleep Hacks – How to Get the Best Sleep of Your Life, Every Night!

An Algorithmic Solution to Insomnia


Sleep. Recently I’ve been getting great sleep… | by Harj Taggar | Medium

  • I like that Harj caveats “this advice won’t work if you have kids.”
  • And he shares the best advice on getting good sleep I’ve heard was from Naval — “don’t run a company” 🙂

How Memory Replay in Sleep Boosts Creative Problem-Solving – PMC

The Gap & The Gain: Must Read for Founders

Founders, as you know, founding is really f*ing hard. Especially the quiet psychological battles you’re forced to fight many days.

If you’re looking to unlock the next-level you, I highly recommend The Gap & The Gain.

Having read hundreds of books on entrepreneurship, performance, self-help etc., I would put The Gap & The Gain in the foundational canon – a must-read – for every entrepreneur, at any stage of their journey.

Packed with eye-opening revelations about the high achiever’s psyche, anecdotes, wisdom… I won’t do it justice in the few minutes I have to write this, but the gist is simple:

There are two kinds of mindset:

  1. the gap mindset – observing the world through the lens of comparison to an ideal.
  2. the gain mindset – observing the world relative to prior progress.

Highlights included:

  • How to measure one’s own progress in a productive way
  • The trap caused by ever-shifting goal posts
  • Why optimism is the only rational mindset if you’re looking to increase performance
  • The hidden psychology of happiness, and why it’s crucial to high performance
  • How our default state – the gap – causes stress, anxiety and fear
  • How being in the gap mindset harms team members and undermines progress
  • How the gain mindset propagates – but requires ongoing awareness
  • Powerful examples from real-world high achievers
  • Above all:

I personally believe Hardy & Sullivan excavated the root cause of anxiety itself.

Pro tip: The audiobook is insanely value-add, with hours of back & forth between the two authors. Full of extra treasures.

Thank you Dr. Hardy & Dan Sullivan for bringing this project to life.

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In God Coin We Trust

After revisiting Szabo’s The God Protocols for an upcoming project with my friend Nathan (who nicknames Bitcoin the God Coin), I couldn’t help but take a trip down memory lane.

I grew up in pretty modest means early in life, which might be why money’s always fascinated me. Especially the mechanisms through which different governments at different times in their history communicated money. For the past few centuries, up until what turns out to be the imminent end of the base analog era of money – that’s been by way of physical coins and notes.

When I was very young, I collected coins. Collecting is an understatement – more like obsessed over them. Their form factor was a source of endless fascination. Organizing them. Cleaning them. Precious… maybe a bit of Gollum energy.

It’s unclear why, but I’d pour over those coins. I’d be electrified when coming across new coins. Finding wheat pennies felt like winning the lottery. I had questions for every coin: how did they decide your circumference and material? Bi-centennial variants omg. Liberty half dollars… SILVER DOLLARS?!

Some family members were hobbyist numismatists, and I caught that bug early on. They encouraged me and helped me develop an appreciation for the space. The first time I laid eyes on a Canadian nickel I nearly flipped — not a smooth circle!! I’ll never forget finding a rusty old mercury dime, nearly a century out of print, resting in the dirt near my Grandma’s house.

😍

Later I started collecting paper-based financial instruments. Family members visiting other places would bring me foreign notes from their travels afar. I was 8 years old when I first obtained Confederate Notes from each civil war era southern state – long before I understood the atrocities of that war, or why it was fought, or that the notes were counterfeit 😀

I was fascinated by the differences in how notes were marked with serial numbers, the special designations, the mint’s insignia, the intricate artwork of the people and the buildings and the pastoral scenes depicted on both, and especially the badges, the rosettes and the guilloche. And, in later designs, the security mechanisms: I might’ve pulled the little plastic strip out of a few bills to see how they work.

Silver certificates were an enigmatic and strikingly beautiful expression in my collection – with their blue badges, and the subtle differences in wording about in whom we trust, and how the note is valued. But I was too young at the time to grasp what their existence meant – that at one time our money had been backed by something real and tangible, whereas by the time I was collecting money instruments, the notes were only legal tender.

Payable to the Bearer on Demand. Can you imagine?

I would count coins and recount, and try to devise new ways of counting the coins using volumetric means like stack height. I would build from cardboard, glue, craft sticks and newspaper wrappers elaborate villages with banks and hidden vaults to store the coins.

My grandpas would give me interesting coins for my birthday. Family would take me to coin & precious metal shops, where I’d nearly melt from excitement. I once received a guide showing the worth of various coins out of circulation, and would spend hours figuring out the relative worths of my collection, and which coins I absolutely had to have someday.

The passion extended to precious metals. While I didn’t have much money growing up I did receive small amounts of silver and gold as gifts I cherished. I would track the commodities prices daily in the local newspaper.

You could say I didn’t get out much when I was young lol. But later in life I would keep this fascination with coins and currencies and the general ideas of money. I’d start a company that tried to make a digital version of bearer bonds, not dissimilar to what Szabo had described. I’ve since collected hundreds of legacy financial instruments from around the world.

Base Digital Money

I first heard about bitcoin in convos while visiting MIT 2009, but didn’t pay much attention then, since there wasn’t a form factor to digital money. I put off reading Satoshi’s paper until 2010. At the time I was struggling financially and with depression, trying to build a company while trying to pay off student loans – it was a very bitter time, and it didn’t help having recently watched the bank bailouts.

Satoshi’s paper was a major “aha” moment for me. It beautifully solved so many problems in not many pages. I was struck by the eight decimal precision. Though not “Sats” at that time, the unit it represented seemed significant. I wanted to think Satoshi intended some use for that number of decimals. At any rate, the decision to make a “coin” – almost every base analog currency worldwide stopped at two decimals – to make a coin that has 8 decimals of precision surely meant something. It meant there would be 2 quadrillion of what we now call Satoshis – which happens to be the same order of magnitude of all money it all its forms worldwide.

Perhaps the day would come when the unit now known as Satoshi would be worth a penny ($1 million / bitcoin). Or perhaps a dollar ($100,000,000 a bitcoin!). It seemed plausible, however outlandish at that time. But the current all time high reached 6.4% the way to my initial lower bound projection.

The biggest financial mistake I’ve made so far in life is putting that paper down in 2010, thoroughly convinced that bitcoin is going to become a viable digital currency, and doing absolutely nothing about it for a year. But the smartest financial decision I’ve yet made was to start investing mid 2011. I didn’t have much to invest, but I did manage to keep a small portion of that bitcoin for a decade. I’m surprised that 10 years have gone by – that was fast! — but not at all surprised by the current price of bitcoin. It seems to fit with Satoshi’s decimal precision design.

Having sold most bitcoins I had from those days, and having paid what felt like a lifetime’s worth of taxes in a few years as punishment for doing so, I will never again sell another bitcoin. Not because I want to hoard them, but because now I think bitcoin could be a great fiat debasement hedge. Back then I, like most Americans, thought the US Dollar was the permanent global reserve currency. But 2020 showed us that even the world’s reserve currency can be debased. Mnuchin directed the single greatest expansion of money supply in the history of humankind. Yes printer going “BRRRR” sought to avoid the COVID Recession becoming the COVID Depression. Or was it the other way around? Given that Event 201 happened exactly 1 year prior to the start of the real COVID outbreak, it remains unclear to me which was cause and which was intended effect.

Not the kind of hockey stick growth you were hoping for

No matter which is which, it doesn’t take a Zimbabwean historian to figure out what happens next.

This is why I’m so thankful that bitcoin is mathematically trustworthy in its finite supply. In addition to operating continuously for over a decade without a single breach, zero double-spend, or any other failure mode problem it could’ve faced along the way, bitcoin hasn’t exceeded its maximum allowable supply, as it simply cannot. There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins, minus the ones on all those hard drives in the landfill, or in wallets with unrecoverable passwords.

(Side note: sometimes I wonder if Elon loves DOGE because as a LTC fork it has many characteristics of bitcoin but without the supply constraint – does he want humankind to have a digital fiat currency rather than a fixed supply?).

By virtue of its trustless design and decentralized architecture, no government can “ban” bitcoin. Every member of the UN could team up to “ban btc” as a group, and it would still be just as fruitless, as long as enough people agree to trust its mathematical trustworthiness, and enough infrastructure exists to facilitate its use in everyday situations.

This is why, to me, bitcoin is more powerful than any gun in humanity’s defense against tyranny. “Give me control of a nation’s money supply and I care not who makes its rules.” – Mayer Amschel Rothschild.

If Rothschild’s startling thought could be remixed for the emerging base digital era, what would it say?: Perhaps something along the lines of: “Give us a money supply that needs no nation, and we care not which ruler tries to control us.”

At this point it seems beyond the skill of central banks stop the inescapable end game: btc becomes humankind’s reserve currency. But I believe they’re smart enough to see that it’s inevitable, and that it’s something that’s sort of going to happen with no magic tipping point moment.

Over the coming decades, BTC and all the crypto projects built on its principles will simply continue to absorb increasing amounts of global liquid value. As more and more people believe in it, as more people and places use it, and more brilliant ambitious engineers build new features and infrastructure for it, monetary value will just continue to transfer from base analog to base digital.

That’s exactly what’s been happening the past decade, right under our noses.

From its initial “big bang,” when bitcoins were worth $0.0000001 / btc (and, infinitesimally small moments before that), to that time 10,000 bitcoins bought two pizzas, to its 2017 intercept of $10^5 / btc ~within one week~ of Tuur DeMeester’s log regression projection (which he made 3 years prior!), to our current run up to $10^6 / btc possibly sometime this year? – there are two thoughts I value even more than the excitement of seeing something so elegant grow up:
1. Bitcoin price isn’t rising. USD is just worth less, so it buys less BTC.
2. Bitcoin and all crypto networks founded on its principles are together enabling the base digital future of money, and these networks are just absorbing the value from the final days of base analog money, like a digital towel.

Tuur Demeester’s Log Regression of BTC price – made in 2014

In this way, BTC will essentially become the de facto global reserve currency, not by mandate of any one government or bank– they cannot decree its legitimacy any more they they can stop it from happening (though El Salvador forcing its acceptance as tender is an important milestone and proof point).

All of this to say I think BTC could hold its own as a fiat currency debasement hedge, and with all of the great projects being built by brilliant minds all over the world, it will make a great reserve currency for humankind.

In God Coin We Trust.

One Change Worth Keeping: Shared Spaces 😍

I’m inspired watching restauranteurs creatively adapt to the new world, and appreciate what their adaptation brings to the American streetscape. The flourishing of outdoor shared spaces re-imagine the balance of space for people, cars and buildings here in U.S streets.

Jase Wilson: Shared Spaces

Shared spaces are one ingredient of the slow streets movement. Hopefully, the entire slow streets movement remains cemented in our thinking about placemaking. Slow streets represent a much needed victory over the traffic engineers who since post-WWII worked to optimize our nation’s places for the storage and unencumbered movement of motor vehicles – at the expense of living, livable streets.

But I hope the structures and spaces created by our restauranteurs (and other creative small business owners), intended to be temporary, somehow become a permanent part of our way of life. They are the parklet-like outdoor seating booths taking over parking spaces throughout some of our cities. They sit somewhere between the semi-permanence of parklets and the ephemera of (Park)ing Day installations. But new entrants since then suggest such shared spaces are moving towards permanence.

They seem to cluster and multiply. Like street truck plazas, but lining whole streets. Very cool. They seem to be evolving, with hundreds of expressions on public display and frequent updates made by their makers, learning from each other, thinking of new ways to enhance them. It’s been two months since Hayden Manseau’s excellent piece on Shared Spaces, and in that short time frame the number and quality of these fixtures have compounded.

Along Valencia, in S.F., whole blocks transform into temporary woonerfs on some days and nights of the week. The result is magic, combining the electric atmosphere of a living street together with the pedestrian’s functional equivalent of a boulevard. It’s easy to speed up, slow down, and get around when we’re not relegated to the street’s margin. Something like the 16th Street Mall in Denver except with 3x the density of restaurants.

While such outdoor seating arrangements have been commonplace for centuries in other parts of the world, the hundreds now popping up throughout S.F. illustrate the American spirit of experimentation and self-expression. While they all serve more or less the same purpose, each has its own unique look and feel.

Most are hacked together weekend projects with basic lumber and some love. But even with a $10 thing of backyard string lights, these bring surprising warmth and character to the street.

Some look like physical extensions of the parent restaurant’s interior theme… leather couches and lamps and fiddle leaf figs and even area rugs right there in the street.

Others look like full-on visions of the future of restaurants, Lebbeus Woods-like reconfigurations of the entire idea of dining in a place.

Each contributes to the street, and to the forgotten sense of place we here in America forgot sometime after WWII. They take Kunstler’s “active permeable membrane” to all new levels here in the U.S.

Of course, they’re not just for restaurants and eating. Walking around S.F. almost daily, I’ve seen:

  1. Haircuts – like 50’s style perm machines and barber chairs and rinse basins
  2. Workouts – people doing squats, bootcamps, and all kinds of crazy gym things right out in the street – amazing
  3. Waiting rooms – app delivery drivers waiting for orders in comfort rather than standing in the middle of the sidewalk or waiting in a car
  4. Music
  5. Voting Booths 🇺🇸
  6. Making Pottery! With actual pottery wheels
  7. Mini eSports tournaments
  8. Good old fashioned seating, a new wave of parklets

And they don’t just serve the host business. These fixtures calm motor traffic, foster commerce, and create opportunities of gathering outdoors in a time where we need to remember we are not alone.

Shared spaces represent a big step forward for our nation’s places, a step I believe we should fight to keep long after this pandemic becomes a distant memory. Examples and reminders of crisis driving innovation.

With our massive strides in 3d printing, together with resourceful ingenuity of our small business owners, these shared spaces could become a new market with vendors, trade shows, a renaissance in local craft & manufacturing, and more.

Let’s hope they become a permanent addition to the American streetscape, and may be our time’s equivalent of the plazas and piazzas where we have the conversations we need to have in order to move forward.

Your internet isn’t ready for Coronavirus

U.S. broadband is about to face the tragedy of the commons.

If you live almost anywhere in the U.S., don’t expect to just “go remote” smoothly as your company is likely about to mandate you do. While remote work seems to be a magic bullet so far, that’s because less than 1% of us are doing it, and today at the dawn of the U.S. outbreak we already got brief glimpses of what to expect when 2, 5, 10% of the U.S. economy simultaneously goes remote.

The problem is capacity required for remote work tools versus the physics of the dominant medium of U.S. internet connections: copper.

Why is our internet made of mostly copper? It’s because a handful of telephone and cable companies – the copper oligopoly – serve the vast majority of American internet subscribers. Just one problem: copper is awful at capacity. Advertised speeds can be faked right up to the legal limits surrounding truth in advertising, using lame hardware hacks and fancy footwork like Docsis. But you can’t fake the physics of capacity. Bandwidth-intensive services, like Zoom for team meetings and Netflix for chilling, gobble up capacity.

Lots of people are going to be trying to Zoom to work in the coming weeks. Because of that, our internet infrastructure is about to run up against the laws of physics. It will test our patience, and maybe our entire economy in the process.

Our dilemma isn’t unique to the internet. It’s one example from a well-known family of problems, the tragedy of the commons:

The tragedy of the commons is a situation in a shared-resource system where individual users, acting independently according to their own self-interest, behave contrary to the common good of all users by depleting or spoiling the shared resource through their collective action.

Wikipedia

Unlike most tragedies of the commons involving physical resources, where resource consumption is tangible, the digital version of this problem is largely invisible, knowable only by the symptoms of overwhelmed networks.

Remote work is great until everyone is doing it, or at least trying to do it. The sharp increase in video calls alone will overwhelm most incumbent last-mile networks at the local level in the U.S. And what will happen when most American universities run each day’s courses online?

Signs are already beginning to emerge. Calls aren’t going through. Connections are dropping out of the blue. Frequent lag and buffering. Service outages. Your favorite site seems slower than normal. Your super important Zoom team assembly can’t even right now.

Even stranger, many of the SaaS tools you rely on will seem suddenly buggy in unexpected ways. That’s because modern software as a service interacts constantly with the internet. While they may be relatively low bandwidth compared to heavy video, their requests to and from your client machine will be competing for the same amount of capacity they had available last week, with hundreds or even thousands of times the concurrent traffic next week.

For SaaS builders, suddenly, strange bugs that never existed before will begin to crop up in your products, and these bugs cannot be easily squashed, because they live just beyond the reach of your software engineers, out in the physical network. The only answer is carefully attending to graceful degradation.

None of this would be a problem, of course, if we had fiber to the premises throughout the U.S. But we don’t. Not even close. Less than 10% of the U.S. has what the FCC allows to be called fiber. Even many incumbent “fiber” customers are in for a bitter shock: during this crisis, they’ll learn what they’ve really been paying for: “fiber-esque” – a connection that isn’t fully fiber, but is marketed as gigabit speed, at a premium price, and is only as good as the weakest link out to the internet.

Office Space Traffic GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY
Zoooommmm!!

Video conferencing services like Zoom work like magic most of the time, in part because they have insanely talented engineers over there, and in part because there’s usually abundant bandwidth available to handle all simultaneous calls.

And yet Zoom could have the best engineers and the best systems on the planet, and your company could be among the thousands of organizations who are about to insist on remote video meetings, and not one bit of this matters if your Comcast connection – which is almost entirely copper – melts in the presence of the thousands of concurrent video calls going on all around you.

What’s going on? You might not think about it, but when you Zoom to remote work, you’re doing the digital equivalent of driving a huge, bandwidth-guzzling S.U.V. down what is almost certainly the digital equivalent of a two lane gravel road on your way to your team meetings. Good for you and your company. But what happens when all of your neighbors try Zooming, too? Less than 1% of the U.S. video conferences in daily work, and all of us already know the painful, stress-inducing symptoms of overburdened networks. What happens when 10% of our country’s workforce tries to video call during business hours? Who will you blame when your ISP makes you late for your remote work?

What about China?! They went remote…

Yes, China has been operating a remote-first, safety mode version of its economy for months now. That is possible, even at five times the population of the U.S., thanks to China’s extensive investment in fiber networks during the 2010’s. Now, even as most Chinese are quarantined at home, many aspects of modern Chinese life continue on thanks to reliable digital services. That smoothness absolutely will not happen in the U.S. during the coronavirus pandemic.

China invested in real information infrastructure: the fiber-extensive transmission, along with the edge processing and storage required to run advanced digital services such as streaming video calls, remote health, and remote classrooms.

Because they invested in real information infrastructure, China’s internet will, for the most part, not confront the tragedy of the commons at today’s usage requirements (which continue growing exponentially).

The U.S. did not make such investment. Even though the internet started here, it evolved in the U.S. over telephone lines, and later cable. Then, we let the staggeringly powerful copper oligopoly cajole us into remaining complacent, milking the public for tens of billions of dollars of subsidy along the way.

It’s gonna suck even worse when everyone tries to remote work during U.S. business hours

Personal prediction: the U.S. economy is going to fall even further behind during the Corona wave. Will we ever catch up?

Viewed from the bright side, the Corona pandemic may provide opportunity to reboot our economy to be digital-first. American telecom marketing 💩 is finally about to be exposed. Watch as your “premium” 300mb/s “fiber”* connection shudders under the weight of its true nature. Get ready to ask for refunds. Better yet, switch to your local internet service provider, if you’re lucky enough to have one, since their network is likely better than the cable company you probably get internet through today.

Want more info on the real state of U.S. broadband?

An Open Letter to Gwynne Shotwell, Elon Musk and Starlink Leadership: Three Reasons to Make Starlink Open Access for America’s Local ISPs

For starters, you’ll make more money.

This open letter originally appeared on Broadband Breakfast.

Greetings Gwynne, Elon, and Team Starlink – 

Thank you for working to connect folks. You’re launching the greatest leap forward in the internet’s 50 year history, and will recast the incumbent structure of U.S. telecom over the next few years. Today’s widespread denial of this fact is a protective slathering of fear, uncertainty and doubt. Disruption can be unpleasant business for oligopolies. 

Please make the most of your shot. Don’t become the world’s largest ISP by going direct-to-consumer. For the sake of Starlink’s shareholders, for Americans, and for our nation’s thousands of local ISPs: 

Please offer Starlink as open access, wholesale backhaul for America’s local ISPs. 

The Swedes, approaching 95% fiber-to-the-premises, yet half the population density of the U.S., showed us the best model: open access last kilometer, offered wholesale via neutral operator (WNO). ISPs compete to serve subscribers over shared infrastructure, all the way into the homes. 

That model can and should become the default in the United States, available to local ISPs, where today the outmoded vertically-integrated operator model reigns supreme, shackling subscribers to outdated copper that pretends to be more capable than it really is.

Our copper oligopoly does what any rational cartel does to protect profits. They write state and local rules preventing threats like open access from spreading. They hoover up billions of public dollars each year, funneling proceeds into a combination of self-congratulating dividends and marketing campaigns designed to thoroughly suppress honest local ISPs. But they do not waste perfectly good cartel cashflow upgrading our nation’s information infrastructure. 

Fig. contrasts 1. incumbent cable oligopoly territory divisions; 2. 2,700 local ISPs (map by Zhuangyuan Fan); 3. StarLink

They are too strong now for local ISPs to do anything about. They fight dirty against local ISPs, and in so doing keep tens of millions of us shackled to shoddy copper, inadvertently preventing our nation from joining the digital services era. 

They are at the time of this writing too big to fail. 

You – Gwynne, Elon, Starlink Leadership – could be the deciding factor between whether we in America remain stuck in the dark era, or if we, too, can enjoy the benefits of the coming Cambrian explosion of digital service innovations.

How? Bring open access to America. Offer Starlink wholesale, open access, delivered to subscribers through competitive local ISPs. 

Even though it looks different from the direct-to-consumer model that works so well over at Tesla, you’re almost certainly already leaning this direction. You have some of the world’s top talent on team, no doubt you’ve already modeled all possible approaches. So you likely saw that wholesale neutral open access offers the path to global maximum ROI for you, the infrastructure owner. The accretive economics of multiple service providers competing to deliver price-discriminated digital services over your infrastructure, minus the outsourced cost structure of service delivery, maximizes the value of your asset. 

But, just in case: here are three reasons to please be an open access, wholesale neutral operator in the U.S.

#1: It’s best for Starlink

You’ll generate more profit. It might take slightly longer than the near-instant retail gratification of turning on the one ISP to rule them all, but wholesale neutral open access offers the path to achieving global maximum ROI. 

Just as important as maximizing profit is your culture and legacy. Like all Elon Musk companies, Starlink exemplifies definite optimism. You incite imaginations, and summon the full brilliance of smart people working hard within a culture of innovation. If you join the U.S. telecom oligopoly, or – more likely, given the devastating potency of Starlink’s tech and team – become their dank meme overlord, you’ll lose your innovative edge. 

With Tesla, Boring Co, Hyperloop and every prior endeavor, you’ve shown that it’s possible to do exceedingly well financially by doing good in the world. As the world’s largest ISP, you’re just the new asshat to blame when WHY THE F*C&K WON’T THIS F&%ING WEBSITE LOAD — F&^K YOU STARLINK!!!! ! 

At least in the context of U.S. broadband, direct-to-consumer is both financially sub-optimal, and at odds with the ethos of all other Elon Musk endeavors.

#2: It’s best for American subscribers

Open access, wholesale Starlink offered via local ISPs helps all Americans.

Once you’re fully launched – 2022? – high speed broadband will be everywhere in America.  With game-changing latency and speed, Starlink holds great potential to accelerate America’s entry into the digital services era. In Sweden, where they are already advancing into digital distributed healthcare, in which many forms of care are administered in-home, now that the information infrastructure is in place.

Digital services will save America hundreds of billions of dollars per year in healthcare and transportation costs, and profoundly enhance the quality of life for millions of Americans. Such digital services that cannot properly flow through copper, nor many of today’s fixed wireless networks. Most such services can easily flow through your global infrastructure. 

As wholesale backhaul for local ISPs, local ISPs can upsell and cross-sell such digital services to subscribers. And you don’t put folks in the awkward place where they need to leave their local ISP –  especially in remote America, often someone they hold long ties with, bonded by the ocean of uninhabited terrain separating their community from the rest of the world. Subscribers have someone local to talk to when things go wrong. 

#3: It’s best for America’s Local ISPs, and the communities they serve

The potential reality just ahead is sobering for those who dare to look. The fate of the local ISP remains to be seen in the Starlink era of internet access. The amount of challenges local ISPs take on every day means most are unaware of the profound change you’re about to unleash. Of those aware, most I’ve spoken with at Ready.net seem in denial. A small but growing number are understandably worried that the end is near.

There are nearly 3,000 ISPs in the U.S. When they realize the eminent threat, when your shadow passes overhead, when adrenaline sharpens their eyes and their minds and they pause the hard work of keeping their community connected long enough to react, which question would you rather they ask? 

“Is Starlink the end of my business?” 

Sure, you could wipe most of them off the face of the earth, after they’ve worked for years or decades to get folks connected.

“How can I grow my business through Starlink to serve more subscribers?” 

Or, you could give them a potent tool with which to compete against the cable incumbents.

By empowering local ISPs, you’ll help human-scale ISPs win their constant battle against the copper oligopoly. Local ISPs are the ones fighting mediocrity in telecom infrastructure. They’re the ones working to solve difficult problems, with limited resources. They’re the ones physically, socially, economically tied to their community. If you’re wholesale open access, you help them win. In turn, they’re your built-in salesforce and customer service, capable of thoroughly ensuring access for all.

You could empower thousands of small businesses, cooperatives, municipalities, and nonprofits who’ve worked for years to get folks ready for the digital services. Here are just a few examples among the nation’s thousands of local ISPs: 

1. Aroostook Technologies, the fixed-wireless ISP in far northern Maine, a locally-owned IT business operating since before the internet was born. They’ve connected thousands of Mainers, but routinely turn away prospective customers due to physics constraints of their slice of spectrum within Maine’s heavily forested, hilly terrain. What if they could activate thousands more of their neighbors with always-on, any-line-of-sight via Starlink backhaul? 

2. Innovators like Althea, working to bring new P2P models of access to life on the ground for community-owned networks. What if the creative problem-solvers of the WISP and mesh network communities could serve over your infrastructure, consuming it as a resource, as software startups today utilize AWS? You might enable the Cambrian explosion of all-new distributed digital services. 

3. Our nation’s 800+ Rural Electric Cooperatives – the same unsung heroes who’ve worked to ensure continuous access to electricity for millions of rural Americans since the early 20th century. Now, many RECs offer broadband to their members, like United Electric (where my Ol’ Man worked for decades!), which now serves United Fiber to 11,000 subscribers and growing. They’re the reason you can get superior internet in my rural hometown Maryville, Missouri, than anything I can get living in San Francisco. There are over 100 RECs today with active fiber services, and many more in the works. RECs make exceptionalISPs, and offering internet service helps them serve their members. Some RECs who were looking to implement internet service are reluctant to proceed with their plans to deploy fiber, awaiting whether Starlink will potentially strand tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of their assets.

Conclusion

You’re about to massively upgrade the internet. Americans want to work with their local ISPs. Local ISPs can help you connect more folks and deliver more digital services. Please offer Starlink as wholesale backhaul to our nation’s thousands of local ISPs. 

You’ll unleash the full potential of the internet in America, once and for all. Since we now live in the connected economy, at the dawn of the digital services era, that means open access Starlink unleashes the full potential of America. 

By way of background, Ready.net helps local ISPs grow. There is extremely high demand for Starlink backhaul. We’d love to work with you to make that a reality. 

With or without us. Please use your superpowers for good. 

No matter what, thank you again for connecting folks.

Jase Wilson
Founder, Ready.net
Twitter: @jase 

Thank you Mike Faloon, Drew Clark, Darren Farnan, Zhuangyuan Fan, Deborah Simpier, Jess Masse, my parents Steve and Traci, my girlfriend Xueying, and cats Jackson and Franklin for contributing to this letter, as well as America’s thousands of local ISPs for keeping folks connected. #ThankYourLocalISP

Thank Your Local ISP

Your local ISP is the only thing keeping you and your community adequately connected to the global economy. And they do it with one metaphorical hand tied behind the back, while blindfolded and barefoot.

Nonsense? Consider this: without competition from your local ISP, the incumbent provider whose slice of the telecom oligopoly’s territory covers your community would raise prices, reduce investment in already-inadequate infrastructure, directly harm your community in subtle ways, and, worst of all, prevent you and your community from accessing the coming wave of life-enhancing digital services.

Your local ISP quietly keeps order in your community, though you might not even know they exist. They are the Rangers on the border of your Shire, every day fighting copper monsters, safeguarding you from evils you know not.

Even if you don’t use their services – and statistically you almost certainly don’t, though maybe you should? – your local ISP’s willingness to work hard to serve your community is the only thing keeping your access to the internet reasonably good.

Your local ISP, which could be a local business, a Rural Electric Cooperative, a broadband coop, or even your town itself, is the caped hero saving your ass from the digital dark ages.

Today, there are just over 2,700 ISPs in America, up 20% from 5 years ago. That roughs out to one ISP for every 50,000 homes. But greater than half of connected American households use one of two cable companies for internet service at home. And more Americans than ever access the internet through outdated copper connections, legacies of the cable and landline phone era, owned and operated by a shrinking pool of giant companies.

Today, it’s easier than ever to start a local ISP. Equipment prices have fallen dramatically. Ingenious startups like Althea work to enable anyone to become an ISP. There’s even a thoughtful guide for starting your own ISP, emerging b2b solutions for small ISPs, powerful mapping tools for planning networks, and a flourishing community of WISPs (wireless internet service providers) working to connect folks using wireless technologies. Common is a personal favorite example here in the Bay Area. I expect they’ll be very big someday, and that their ascent will set a good example, and that they’ll keep incumbents on their toes wherever they decide to go.

Today, incumbent telecom ISPs hold the distinction of having the lowest Net Promoter Scores of any kind of business. Even lower than banks. Yet people still choose the incumbent, for many perfectly sensible reasons. Many do so because that is the only choice they know. Others do so out of desire to access television. Others still are lured away from local providers by introductory offers, even when the local ISP offers measurably better service, which is very often the case.

It’s a puzzle until you look closely at the subtle structural disadvantages designed to hold your local ISP down.


The internet is the largest thing we’ve ever created, and almost certainly the most transformative technology in the history of humankind. It turned 50 a few months ago. There is a digital transformation well underway in every industry thanks to the internet’s global connective tissue.

But there is a problem in America, one that will soon escalate into a full-scale crisis, as the sun rises on the digital services era. As we head in to 2020, Microsoft estimates that 160 million Americans still lack access to even the lowest acceptable quality of broadband.

It’s vital we ensure access for all. Because we now live in the connected economy. There is a new economic operating system, one that will enable remote work, distributed healthcare, immersive entertainment, rural prosperity, and many great outcomes enabled by digital services in ways I’m not creative enough to think up. But the next wave of digital service providers will.

The abysmal state of U.S. information infrastructure will grow very painfully obvious over the next few years, as life-enhancing digital services begin to thrive in today’s very small, very fortunate connected enclaves. Meanwhile, connected people and places will continue racing ahead.

Despite their colossal size and unprecedented power, there are many surprising structural reasons why large incumbent ISPs are not able to install America’s next-gen information infrastructure, even if they wanted to. Even if we assume they will. Even if we believe they already are. They aren’t. And they won’t. Because they can’t. And no amount of government subsidy will change that fact.

Only your local ISP, properly empowered, holds the key to connecting you and your community to the future. Together, local ISPs wielding the right tools can solve America’s emergent broadband crisis.


Local ISPs reading this: keep fighting the good fight. And thank you for keeping us connected. I’d also love to hear your experiences with keeping your community connected. Ping me anytime.